If America had any common sense, we would of seen it coming long ago. Russia was reluctant to let go of Georgia in 1992 after the fall of the Soviet Union. Russian troops have been acting as peacekeepers for the past decade, keeping tensions high and making NATO uneasy about admitting Georgia into the treaty. The members of the treaty feared that Georgia would engage in a war and that they would be forced to help them.
Even if a peace treaty hadn't been signed, the rest of NATO would be unwilling to come to Georgia's aid unlike the US. Russia supplies a large majority of fuel (namely natural gas) to nations belonging to NATO. Germany alone receives 40% of its natural gas from Russia.
Smart move by the Russians, really, to occupy Georgia now. The White House has been calling for Georgia to join NATO, a cry echoed by Georgian president
Mikhail Saakashvili. This would have been one of Saakashvili's last chance to join NATO for what would be the next few years if Obama wins the presidency.
I have the feeling that it was Putin, not Medvedev, who was behind the occupation and subsequent peace treaty. Correspondents at the Kenya Broadcasting Corporation say that many obstacles stand in the way of the Russian withdrawal of troops from Georgia, and Russians still occupy the border city of Gori. Medvedev doesn't strike me to be in control of Moscow. Putin seems, as always, to be in control of the situation. If you recall back to the picture on the cover of The New York Times on the day of Medvedev's inauguration, it was Putin, not Medvedev, who was center stage.
Does America face another Cold-War-esque era with Russia following this conflict? Probably not. Relations are strained, but election day in America is coming up, and the Putin-Medvedev might warm up to a new president- so long as he does not conflict with the interests of Russia. If Bush were to stay in office for another year, relations would probably become more tense than before.
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